UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has arrived in Cyprus amid sabre rattling between Greece and Turkey and continuing uncertainty over the Brexit.
“Pleased to be in #Cyprus at this important time to show #UK support for a just & viable settlement of the Cyprus problem,” said Johnson via Twitter.
“I had a very good meeting with President Anastasiades, a very good conversation and really what I said was on behalf of our government in Britain, how much we congratulate him and his leadership in this question, and really to say that this is a matter we think very much for the people of Cyprus.
We are very impressed by the progress that has been made and obviously we are here to support, the UK is here to support and to be useful if we can, but what I would also stress is of course that we may be leaving the treaties of the EU but we are in no sense leaving Europe. And our commitment to Cyprus remains absolutely rock solid, come hell or high water we are there for Cyprus now and in the future.”
His visit comes on the heels of negative and aggressive comments by Turkish President Erdogan, who said that the talks have been going on too long. Erdogan’s comments are unacceptable, said President Anastasiades.
Stalled talks
The talks between President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci have stalled over a single issue in the chapter on territory. The UK is on the UN Security Council, and the peace organisation is trying to save the talks.
“What we are working on is to see how we can re-establish the momentum we had, but this has to be a decision made by the leaders. And I am trying to facilitate that, but I cannot decide over their heads,” said UN envoy Barth Espen Eide in earlier comments.
The main red line is the return of Morphou to Greek-Cypriot administration, according to previous statement from both sides. However, there are several other complicating factors.
Relations are worsening between Greece and Turkey, which have opposing positions on security guarantees on the island. Turkey is in breach of the 1960 limited security guarantee terms after it invaded and set up a long-term occupation of Cyprus in 1974. The other two guarantors – Greece and the UK – signaled that they were willing to give up their guarantor powers under a reunification deal, but with the recent turn for the worse in Turkey’s domestic politics, Ankara is unlikely to follow suit.
Although President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci have made a lot of progress in reunification negotiations, most recently they were unable to agree on the terms of territorial adjustments in a federal, bi-zonal, bi-communal state. As the talks developed, Akinci reversed his original position on the Cyprus problem and has adopted a hardline stance after being influenced by Turkey which is moving away from democracy and EU membership and towards domestic dictatorship and regional expansion. The end result has been negative for a local solution after the talks on territorial issues held in Mont Pelerin, Switzerland, ended in disagreement.
Greece-Turkey relations worsen
Relations between Greece and Turkey are distinctly chilly ever since Turkish President Erdogan said he was dissatisfied with Turkey’s borders, which were laid out in the Treaty of Lausanne after World War I.
“Any dispute of the Treaty of Lausanne is inconceivable and unacceptable since it would be a blatant violation of international law, for which the treaty was fought, and would undermine not only the borders of Greece, but also of the European Union…” said Greek President Pavlopoulos in earlier comments.
Complex
The Cyprus problem has three main components; a reunification of the political and communal administrations; the regional state of play between Greece and Turkey; and the international geo-strategic relations between Russia, the US, the UK and the EU.
Until recently, the local relations between President Anastasiades and Akinci were positive, but now that Greece and Turkey are rattling sabres, the Cypriot leaders are bound to feel the pressure. The relations between Russia and the US were tense until the recent election of Donald Trump to the presidency but the way forward there is still unclear. The EU and Russia may grow closer together now that Cyprus has taken over the presidency of the Council of Ministers, but once again, that’s unclear given the current tensions over Ukraine.
The biggest uncertainty is over the UK’s role in the international community after the Brexit vote. With the EU building towards a common defense policy and Cyprus being the outermost border before Turkey, the UK is still integrally involved because it has several military bases here.
As circumstances shape up into a new regional balance of power, events over the next months will be crucial.