Cyprus reunification talks hang in the balance because a single territorial issue is holding them back, according to information from UN envoy Barth Espen Eide who is meeting with President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci to save the negotiations.
“What we are working on is to see how we can re-establish the momentum we had, but this has to be a decision made by the leaders. And I am trying to facilitate that, but I cannot decide over their heads,” said Mr. Eide after meeting with President Anastasiades.
The main red line is the return of Morphou to Greek-Cypriot administration, according to previous statement from both sides. However, there are several other complicating factors.
Relations are worsening between Greece and Turkey, which have opposing positions on security guarantees on the island. Turkey is in breach of the 1960 limited security guarantee terms after it invaded and set up a long-term occupation of Cyprus in 1974. The other two guarantors – Greece and the UK – signaled that they were willing to give up their guarantor powers under a reunification deal, but with the recent turn for the worse in Turkey’s domestic politics, Ankara is unlikely to follow suit.
Although President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci have made a lot of progress in reunification negotiations, most recently they were unable to agree on the terms of territorial adjustments in a federal, bi-zonal, bi-communal state. As the talks developed, Akinci reversed his original position on the Cyprus problem and has adopted a hardline stance after being influenced by Turkey which is moving away from democracy and EU membership and towards domestic dictatorship and regional expansion. The end result has been negative for a local solution after the talks on territorial issues held in Mont Pelerin, Switzerland, ended in disagreement.
The leaders returned to Cyprus on the 22nd of November, and are considering their options.
But the time for reflecting is nearing the end, said Mr. Eide.
“I don’t principally see any unbridgeable issues, but it is also very much about how to sequence things,” he said, adding that there was a downturn in the mood around the talks because of the high expectations during the Mont Pelerin discussions.
Greece-Turkey relations worsen
Relations between Greece and Turkey are distinctly chilly ever since Turkish President Erdogan said he was dissatisfied with Turkey’s borders, which were laid out in the Treaty of Lausanne after World War I.
“Any dispute of the Treaty of Lausanne is inconceivable and unacceptable since it would be a blatant violation of international law, for which the treaty was fought, and would undermine not only the borders of Greece, but also of the European Union…” said Greek President Pavlopoulos in earlier comments.
Complex
The Cyprus problem has three main components; a reunification of the political and communal administrations; the regional state of play between Greece and Turkey; and the international geo-strategic relations between Russia, the US, the UK and the EU.
Until recently, the local relations between President Anastasiades and Akinci were positive, but now that Greece and Turkey are rattling sabres, the Cypriot leaders are bound to feel the pressure. The relations between Russia and the US were tense until the recent election of Donald Trump to the presidency but the way forward there is still unclear. The EU and Russia may grow closer together now that Cyprus has taken over the presidency of the Council of Ministers, but once again, that’s unclear given the current tensions over Ukraine.
Mr Eide said he would likely have something to announce once he has met with both leaders.
Photo: UN