A dramatic rise in the number of stranded refugees in Greece and the Balkans has triggered increased NATO navy patrols in the Aegean.

The European Council held on March 7th has called for the Aegean and Balkans refugee routes to be closed off to refugees fleeing Syria via Turkey.

So what are the pros and cons of this approach?

Pros:

• Finally, Greece and other Balkan countries are being assisted by a competent military force to help rescue refugees, possibly preventing further drownings and similar tragedies.
• Ruthless human traffickers who force refugees to pay thousands of Euros for high-risk journeys to Europe have less chances of getting away with it from now on.

Cons:

• NATO is conducting emergency operations to rescue civilians and control traffickers - does Turkey understand this?
• Will Turkey use this as an opportunity to extend its influence into the Aegean via NATO operations?
• What is Russia’s role in all of this, will it play ball with the increased NATO presence around Syria or see it as a challenge to its regional influence?
• Turkey does not recognise the UN Law of the Sea and challenges the oil-and-gas deals made by countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Will it use the new patrols to take advantage and extend its disputes with other regional countries?

Russia and the US are now cooperating in Syria after a rocky start, but Turkey is continuing its belligerence and supplies arms to the ISIS terrorist group, based on credible reports by two Turkish journalists who were thrown in jail for informing the public.

Russia has not forgotten that Turkey downed one of its warplanes along the Syrian border and most recently stated that Ankara is making no efforts to investigate the incident, in which a pilot was killed.

Russia has even sent five tons of aid to the Turkoman village where the warplane was shot down. In a pointed statement, Russian news service TASS quoted the Turkoman village leader saying:

“I appreciate help provided to us by the Russian Federation… We always lived calmly and quietly, in good neighboring relations with all nations around us. All of us are Turkomans but we are people of Syria and want to continue leaving in peace and accord.”

Turkey recently shelled Kurdish fighters in Syria who are battling ISIS, extending their war against the Kurds in Turkey to the Kurds in Iraq and Syria.

Following the recent takeover of the Turkish daily Zaman and Turkish President Erdogan’s efforts to censor the press that is critical of his policies, the picture is building of an increasingly dictatorial and aggressive Turkey.

Can NATO control it?